UK residential property transactions stood at 94,800 on a seasonally adjusted basis in September, around 1% lower than August and 4% below the level recorded a year earlier, the latest HMRC figures show.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, transactions were 5% lower than September 2025 and 1% higher than August 2026.
Richard Pike, chief sales and marketing officer at Phoebus Software, commented: “Property transactions have held up reasonably well this year, with only a small drop compared to 2025. However, with mortgage approvals falling throughout 2026, and declining sharply since April, it’s only a matter of time before this feeds through into completed sales.
“With borrowing costs remaining high and affordability stretched, many buyers are cautious about committing to a purchase, particularly if they are hoping for more favourable conditions ahead. The Government’s proposed first-time buyer schemes should provide some support, but it will take time for this to translate into higher transaction volumes.
“Until affordability improves and buyers feel more confident about the economic outlook, a sustained recovery in the housing market could remain some way off.”
Mark Harris, chief executive of mortgage broker SPF Private Clients, said: “With transaction numbers slipping again in September, affordability and wider concerns about the housing market and what the Budget might have in store proved to be a dampener on activity.
“Volatility in swap rates and ultimately mortgage pricing isn't helping borrowers. We welcome the government’s scheme to help first-time buyers as anything which encourages transactions and activity in the market is helpful.
“With the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting next week to discuss interest rates, expectations have grown that it will vote for the first rate rise this year. Borrowers due to take out a mortgage in the next few months should speak to a whole-of-market broker as to what is available and secure a rate now, particularly if they need to protect themselves from fluctuating rates. It can then be revisited before completion to see if a cheaper deal is available at that time.”
Ian Futcher, financial planner at Quilter, added: “These figures show a housing market that was losing some momentum even before the measures announced in this week’s Budget. However, transactions are inherently backward looking, reflecting purchases agreed and mortgages arranged several months before completion.
“The more immediate picture remains challenging. Mortgage rates have risen markedly in recent months as inflation concerns have reshaped expectations for interest rates. Higher borrowing costs are making buyers more cautious, while the greater number of homes available is putting pressure on sellers to price realistically.
“The government’s new Your First Home scheme could provide valuable support for some first-time buyers by reducing the size of the deposit they need to find. However, its focus on new-build properties means it will not solve the wider affordability problem, while stimulating demand without a corresponding increase in supply could place upward pressure on prices. The increase in property income tax may also discourage landlord investment and add further pressure to an already stretched rental market.
“Ultimately, the outlook for transactions will continue to be determined principally by mortgage affordability and consumer confidence. With the Bank of England widely expected to raise rates next week, borrowing costs could come under further pressure before they improve. That will do little to encourage buyers sitting on the sidelines, meaning any recovery in transaction activity is likely to remain gradual and uneven.”
