Greater certainty over home moving timelines could unlock over 260,000 residential homes for the housing market in England within less than a year, according to new Jackson-Stops research.
Its report found that uncertainty over transaction timelines across the wider industry is holding back potential supply before homes reach the open market.
The headline figure of over 260,000 homes represents the first wave of latent housing supply that could be unlocked if uncertainty over transaction timelines was reduced, with the figure rising to over 700,000 owner-occupied homes over the next three years.
The research follows the government last month publishing its roadmap for reforming the home buying and selling process, with proposals designed to speed up transaction times, reduce delays, improve upfront information sharing and give buyers and sellers greater confidence earlier in the transaction process.
With the government stating that its reforms could cut transaction times by around four weeks, Jackson-Stops’ research suggests that greater certainty over moving timelines could unlock a significant pool of would-be movers waiting in the wings.
Government data published as part of the reform roadmap shows the scale of the current challenge facing the market, with the average home purchase taking around 120 days once an offer is accepted, around one in three transactions falling through, and failed transactions currently costing the wider economy up to £1.5 billion annually.
The report also makes clear that process uncertainty is not the sole factor shaping moving decisions. Among owners whose moving plans had been delayed, postponed or abandoned, the most commonly cited barriers were economic uncertainty (42%), mortgage rates (29%) and stamp duty costs (28%). This makes stamp duty the third most commonly cited barrier among affected owner-occupiers, underlining its potential impact on housing mobility.
Jackson-Stops estimates that removing stamp duty costs could bring more than 300,000 owner-occupied homes to the market across England within less than a year. The report estimates that figure could rise to more than 750,000 homes over three years, underlining the potential impact upfront moving costs can have on housing mobility.
Late-stage transaction risks also appear to have a strong effect on confidence. Among owners whose moving plans had been delayed, postponed or abandoned in the last five years, more than eight in ten who cited ‘gazundering’ – when a buyer lowers their offer before exchange – said they would be likely to move within three years if this barrier was no longer an issue. Among those who cited ‘gazumping’ – when a seller accepts a higher offer from another buyer after already accepting an offer – around six in ten said the same.
The research also found that uncertainty over how long the home-moving process would take has delayed, postponed or caused nearly one million households in England to abandon moving plans over the past five years.
Nick Leeming, chairman of Jackson-Stops, commented: “Our Housing Mobility Report highlights an industry-wide challenge facing the English housing market, with would-be movers hesitating before they even begin.
“The government’s proposed reforms are a positive and necessary step. Measures that improve upfront information sharing, strengthen professional standards and provide greater certainty earlier in the process should help buyers and sellers move with more confidence.
“The key now will be implementation, ensuring the reforms are phased carefully, clearly understood by consumers and workable for the agents, conveyancers, lenders and other professionals who will need to deliver them in practice.
“The market is active, and people continue to buy and sell homes every day. But our research indicates there is a sizeable group sitting behind that activity. People who could move, and in many cases would like to move, but who need greater confidence in the process in order to do so.
“Stamp duty is clearly part of the wider mobility challenge. While it is not the only factor shaping moving decisions, our data shows it remains a meaningful barrier for some would-be movers. Any serious discussion about improving housing mobility should consider both the transaction process itself and the upfront costs people face when deciding whether to move.”
