If someone had suggested back in January that the first half of this year would include a widespread conflict in the Middle East, significant movements in oil prices, inflation and swap rates as a result, rapid lender repricing and another change at the top of British politics, you might reasonably have expected the mortgage market to seize up. Instead, to quote a thousand tea-towels, it has largely kept calm and carried on.
That should give everyone involved in our sector some confidence. Lenders, like ourselves, were able to respond quickly when funding costs changed, advisers adapted to products moving in and out of the market at pace, and borrowers continued to make decisions despite plenty of reasons to pause. It was not always comfortable but it showed once again this market is more resilient than many people give it credit for.
When the geopolitical situation settled, swap rates settled with it. Competition has returned remarkably quickly and we have already seen pricing moving back in the right direction. That tells us something important. Markets can cope with change. However, what they really struggle with is uncertainty.
Are we entering familiar territory once again?
The question I keep asking myself, as we motor into July and August, is whether we have learnt anything from the last two summers. Following the General Election in 2024, and then the lengthy build-up to last year's Autumn Budget, we experienced months where rumour often travelled faster than reality.
Every day seemed to bring another story about possible tax changes, housing policy or wider economic reform, and every new headline encouraged another round of speculation. I hope we are not heading into very similar territory.
With a new Prime Minister on the horizon – one who is expected to appoint a new Chancellor - attention will inevitably turn towards the next Budget. The difficulty is that Budgets are not announced overnight. They require consultation, preparation and political agreement, which means there is every chance we face another prolonged period where the gaps are filled with gossip rather than certainty.
Markets, or the media, rarely leave a vacuum unfilled. If Government does not provide clarity, somebody else invariably fills that space with opinion, rumour and guesswork.
It is certainty the market needs
There is already no shortage of ideas being discussed. Stamp duty continues to attract fresh attention and could be a policy for the chopping block. Different approaches to property taxation are being debated. There are fresh conversations about first-time buyer support, council house building and wider housing reform. Some of those proposals may eventually become Government policy, while others will disappear almost as quickly as they arrived.
The important point is not whether every proposal becomes reality. The important point is how long people are left waiting to find out. There is a law of unintended consequences in housing policy that we seem to revisit time and again.
If people believe the rules may soon change, many who have the flexibility to wait simply postpone making a decision. Buyers delay purchases. Sellers hold off listing their homes. Investors sit on their hands. Activity slows, not necessarily because the market is weak, but because uncertainty encourages caution.
Advisers will be more valuable than ever
Advisers, of course, are central in all markets, but especially the one we may be entering. Clients will inevitably ask whether they should wait for potential tax changes, whether rates could move again or whether housing policy might alter the economics of buying now rather than later. Those conversations are only likely to become more common over the coming months.
The answer, as it usually does, comes back to individual circumstances rather than political headlines. Life does not pause because Westminster is debating policy. People still move home, remortgage, grow their families, separate, retire and invest. Those decisions are driven by life rather than politics, and advisers remain best placed to help clients distinguish between meaningful change and background noise.
The first half of 2026 has demonstrated that our market is capable of coping with significant economic shocks. My hope is that the second half does not become dominated by political uncertainty.
Whatever changes a new PM ultimately decides to make, the sooner any ‘new’ Government provides a clear direction on housing, taxation and the timing of the next Budget, the better. Our industry has repeatedly shown it can adapt to change. It is prolonged uncertainty that does the greatest damage, and that is a lesson we should not need to learn for a third consecutive summer.
