There are moments in the mortgage market where direction feels relatively clear, and then there are periods like the one we are currently experiencing, where expectations shift quickly and confidence in any single outcome is hard to maintain, particularly when global events are feeding directly into rate expectations and lender behaviour.
At the start of the year, the prevailing view was 2026 would bring a series of Bank Base Rate (BBR) cuts, with two or three reductions widely expected, and that outlook was shaping both product pricing and borrower decision-making across the buy-to-let sector.
However, it has not taken long for that consensus to be challenged, as geopolitical developments and their impact on inflation expectations have altered the picture significantly, with some commentators moving to price in potential BBR increases, before more recently settling on a more mixed outlook that could include both a rise and subsequent cuts.
This constant recalibration has created a difficult environment for lenders attempting to price fixed-rate products with any degree of certainty, and it has inevitably led to periods where fixes have been withdrawn or repriced at speed, not through choice I might add but through necessity.
At the same time, advisers and landlord borrowers have had to reassess their own approach, particularly when it comes to committing to longer-term deals in a market where the future path of rates remains unclear.
Why flexibility is now front of mind
In this type of environment, it is perhaps inevitable flexibility becomes a central consideration, with many landlords opting to keep their options open rather than lock into a rate that may not look competitive in a relatively short period of time.
Tracker products are therefore moving more firmly into the spotlight, offering a straightforward link to BBR, immediate visibility on pricing, and crucially, the ability to respond quickly if and when conditions change.
The absence of ERCs is a key part of that appeal, as it allows borrowers to switch products without penalty, which is particularly valuable at a time when confidence in longer-term forecasts is limited.
This growing focus on optionality is not about avoiding decisions, but about making decisions that reflect the current level of uncertainty, and ensuring borrowers retain control over their next move rather than being constrained by product terms.
Evidence of a clear shift in behaviour
It is perhaps because of that, that we at Fleet have seen a significant change in application trends, as we recorded a 506% year-on-year increase in applications for tracker products, which provides a clear indication of how both advisers and landlords are responding to current conditions.
That level of growth is unlikely to be driven by pricing alone, but rather by a combination of factors, including reduced availability of fixed rate options at times, ongoing volatility in the money markets, and a growing belief shorter-term flexibility may offer a more prudent route through the current cycle.
Our recent launch of new two-year tracker products is designed to support that demand, with rates starting from BBR plus 0.75% and no ERCs, giving landlords the ability to benefit from competitive pricing today while retaining the freedom to switch as/if/when the market evolves.
These products are intended to sit alongside fixed rates rather than replace them, ensuring advisers can match solutions to client needs based on their individual outlook and appetite for risk.
The role of trackers in the remortgage market
The remortgage space is where this trend is perhaps most pronounced, as borrowers reaching the end of existing deals are often working within tighter timeframes and need solutions that can be secured efficiently without overcommitting in an uncertain environment.
For many landlords, tracker products may provide a practical bridge, allowing them to refinance in the short term while keeping the option open to review their position if rates begin to move in a more favourable direction.
This does not remove risk, as tracker rates will move in line with BBR and could increase, but it does provide a level of agility that is currently highly valued.
As always, this underlines the importance of advice, ensuring landlord borrowers understand the potential outcomes and are selecting products that align with both their current circumstances and their future plans.
Uncertainty set to remain a key theme
Looking ahead, it is difficult to see the current uncertainty dissipating in the near term, particularly given the ongoing influence of the war in Iran and its impact on inflation and interest rate expectations.
Even with a ceasefire in place at the time of writing, there is little clarity on how long it will hold or what the longer-term implications may be, and that lack of certainty is likely to continue feeding through into the mortgage market.
As a result, we can expect flexibility to remain a key theme, with tracker products continuing to play an important role for those borrowers who prioritise adaptability over long-term rate security.
