Related topic: GDP

Could better-than-expected GDP figures prompt the Bank of England to hold rather than hike rates?

Official figures show modest UK GDP growth of 0.2% through January 2026, though energy price risks tied to the Iran conflict are already reshaping the UK economic outlook.

GDP is expected to grow more slowly this year but faster in 2027 and 2028, the latest OBR forecasts show.

Economists are now predicting further Bank Rate reductions 'sooner rather than later'.

While the UK has avoided a technical recession, industry experts note that more muted quarterly growth is 'meagre at best'.

The figures add weight to the expectation that the Bank of England will cut interest rates next week.

Monthly GDP growth has fallen by 0.1%, with quarterly growth of just 0.1%.

The UK economy recorded modest growth in August, signalling a slight improvement in overall activity, according to the latest data from ONS. 

Rising inflation is also dampening the chances of another Bank Rate cut this year.

GDP data provides some relief for Reeves ahead of the Autumn Budget, economists say.